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Washington Post
April 4, 2009
By Chris Cillizza
37
That's the number of states that are either solidly or leaning Democratic in a series of Gallup tracking polls conducted over the first six months of 2009. Only eight states are solidly or leaning Republicans in that same data.
The numbers, which are based on party identification of adults in national tracking polls, paint a stark portrait of the challenge facing Republicans not just in the 2010 midterm election but also in the 2012 presidential race.
There are currently 29 states in which Democrats enjoy a 10-percentage point (or more) edge on party identification. Compare that to just four states where the Republican edge is ten points or higher (Utah, Wyoming, Idaho and Alaska) and one (Alabama) that leans toward the GOP.
Add up the 29 states that are in the solidly Democratic category, according to Gallup, and you get 350 electoral votes; add up the four states in the solidly Republican category and you get 15 electoral votes.
To be sure, these numbers should not be read as a direct indicator of what the 2012 election landscape will look like as voters often identify with one party while voting for another. For example, four of the states that are identified as solidly Democratic (West Virginia, Kentucky, Arkansas and Missouri) went for John McCain in the 2008 presidential election.
Still, the trend lines apparent in the Gallup data have to be disturbing for Republicans.
As compared to Gallup's yearly national data in 2008, nine states changed classification in the first half of 2009. Six of those states (Virginia, Indiana, Florida, Georgia, South Dakota and Nebraska) moved toward Democrats; just three (Colorado, Nevada and Alabama) moved toward Republicans.
Lots can change in a year (or three) in politics. But, Democrats have to feel good about where they stand in the states at the moment.
